Post #761 · Posted at 2017-07-04 05:51:18pm 7.9 years ago
Inspired by the above posts, I went ahead and did a random simulation to see how likely is a particular stepper to get into the top 15. The two remaining rounds are randomised 100,000× and points are given accordingly.
You will see a bunch of ties here. There were tiny variances, but as the correct figure is supposed to be the same for people with the same amount of points, I averaged them. Take a look if you're interested!
Don't be discouraged if your percentage is low! This only proves that everyone is still on a fighting shot. Even the ones without points still have at least a 1 in 57 chance that they'll make it.
Also, one thing I noticed was that the percentages add up to slightly more than 1500%. This simulation assumes that everyone who tied at 15th all get to enter. The sum is around 1511%, which implies (probably?) that there's an 11% chance of the VIP Room having more than 15 people.
Now in spreadsheet form! Take a look at the "Top 15 chances" tab in the sheets, it shows everyone's odds all the way from when Week 1's results were announced.
You will see a bunch of ties here. There were tiny variances, but as the correct figure is supposed to be the same for people with the same amount of points, I averaged them. Take a look if you're interested!
100%
01angel
Benpai
chewi
DDRDAIKENKAI
ddrstepper
Feraligatr
Gameoson
ledgam3r1279
Pandemonium X
warpdr!ve
10~99%
99.95% Pie-kun
94.91% Daffa212162
71.15% DigitalBasic
39.32% TikalFan9000
17.28% mf32892
15.35% rikame
13.21% Telperion
01angel
Benpai
chewi
DDRDAIKENKAI
ddrstepper
Feraligatr
Gameoson
ledgam3r1279
Pandemonium X
warpdr!ve
10~99%
99.95% Pie-kun
94.91% Daffa212162
71.15% DigitalBasic
39.32% TikalFan9000
17.28% mf32892
15.35% rikame
13.21% Telperion
5~9%
9.61% xXMokou98Xx
7.61% Spork!
6.97% The Legendary DJXYZ
6.60% hooky
5.82% vincentw
5.66% K-Step
5.66% HealingDMax300
5.45% Oni-91
5.35% 5l1n65h07
5.35% Astroman129
5.35% CuzcoBlocko
5.35% DevilsLynAvenged12!
5.35% djVERTICAI
5.35% KittyBox
5.35% Nezemarth
5.35% NuVirus
5.35% SomethingRandom
5.35% stylek226
5.35% SupremeX
5.35% SZ64saulius
5.17% Loodee
9.61% xXMokou98Xx
7.61% Spork!
6.97% The Legendary DJXYZ
6.60% hooky
5.82% vincentw
5.66% K-Step
5.66% HealingDMax300
5.45% Oni-91
5.35% 5l1n65h07
5.35% Astroman129
5.35% CuzcoBlocko
5.35% DevilsLynAvenged12!
5.35% djVERTICAI
5.35% KittyBox
5.35% Nezemarth
5.35% NuVirus
5.35% SomethingRandom
5.35% stylek226
5.35% SupremeX
5.35% SZ64saulius
5.17% Loodee
0~4%
3.97% ohaiimian
3.44% tamtamino
1.89% Wari
1.74% Aegis
1.74% AnonyWolf/Sigrev2
1.74% Braeden47
1.74% brunobg24
1.74% CLOUDIO
1.74% Cowtao
1.74% daichiikamuzu
1.74% darkanine
1.74% DDRNGGin
1.74% Dreamland200
1.74% hiddennames
1.74% hypnoticmarten77
1.74% KevinRocker10
1.74% Mr.Music
1.74% mu-box
1.74% xRGTMx
3.97% ohaiimian
3.44% tamtamino
1.89% Wari
1.74% Aegis
1.74% AnonyWolf/Sigrev2
1.74% Braeden47
1.74% brunobg24
1.74% CLOUDIO
1.74% Cowtao
1.74% daichiikamuzu
1.74% darkanine
1.74% DDRNGGin
1.74% Dreamland200
1.74% hiddennames
1.74% hypnoticmarten77
1.74% KevinRocker10
1.74% Mr.Music
1.74% mu-box
1.74% xRGTMx
Don't be discouraged if your percentage is low! This only proves that everyone is still on a fighting shot. Even the ones without points still have at least a 1 in 57 chance that they'll make it.
Also, one thing I noticed was that the percentages add up to slightly more than 1500%. This simulation assumes that everyone who tied at 15th all get to enter. The sum is around 1511%, which implies (probably?) that there's an 11% chance of the VIP Room having more than 15 people.
Now in spreadsheet form! Take a look at the "Top 15 chances" tab in the sheets, it shows everyone's odds all the way from when Week 1's results were announced.
Post #762 · Posted at 2017-07-04 08:54:50pm 7.9 years ago
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"Popular bisexual disaster" |
Basically I have to be the 1 in 21.
Let's Brock Lesnar that fucker.
Let's Brock Lesnar that fucker.
Post #763 · Posted at 2017-07-04 08:59:12pm 7.9 years ago
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" ♫~~ I'm wired to the world ~~♫" |
^ Not if I can help it.
I'm submitting a 6 or 7 this week. Bring it on, fuckers.
I'm submitting a 6 or 7 this week. Bring it on, fuckers.
Post #764 · Posted at 2017-07-04 09:42:29pm 7.9 years ago
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Impossible for me, welp I'm retired.
Post #765 · Posted at 2017-07-04 11:00:10pm 7.9 years ago
Happy July 4th! Here's something that literally has nothing to do with America! 

Tougenkyou / MYTK
2/2
4/6
6/9
9/13
10/15
I didn't bother calculating the exact number of points but Feraligatr confirmed that the file qualifies. Plenty of crossovers and footswitches to go around.


Tougenkyou / MYTK





I didn't bother calculating the exact number of points but Feraligatr confirmed that the file qualifies. Plenty of crossovers and footswitches to go around.

Post #766 · Posted at 2017-07-05 01:13:20am 7.9 years ago
I don't even know what my one file outside of the collab looks like, I really should not have a ~10% chance
Post #767 · Posted at 2017-07-05 03:14:27am 7.9 years ago
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"~BOI he did it~" |
BPM: 63-126
ITG Scale: 1
/ 3
/ 5
/ 8
/ 10 
X-Scale: 2
/ 4
/ 9
/ 12
/ 15
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I've had this sitting in my simfile inventory for a while and just touched it up a bit.
Some tasteful footswitches and crossovers paired to one of Virtual Riot's newest songs in his recent EP Throwback.
And since it has a lot of wubs and dubs, it also has lots of wave and stutter gimmicks as well. Hope you guys enjoy.
ITG Scale: 1





X-Scale: 2





I've had this sitting in my simfile inventory for a while and just touched it up a bit.
Some tasteful footswitches and crossovers paired to one of Virtual Riot's newest songs in his recent EP Throwback.
And since it has a lot of wubs and dubs, it also has lots of wave and stutter gimmicks as well. Hope you guys enjoy.
Post #768 · Posted at 2017-07-05 02:51:47pm 7.9 years ago
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"also known as MEGAtive" |
...Actually it's been awhile since I last submitted anything. This file is intended to be submitted at Simfile Buffet but I didn't make it on time. 
are footswitches parade.
TBH CSP felt harder than regular 18s but whatever.


TBH CSP felt harder than regular 18s but whatever.
Post #769 · Posted at 2017-07-05 03:52:10pm 7.9 years ago
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"c r e b" |
Post #770 · Posted at 2017-07-05 04:58:59pm 7.9 years ago
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I'll likely won't have a song this week. Kind of busy this week and seeing how I'm already a lock in VIP Room...
Post #771 · Posted at 2017-07-06 01:29:22pm 7.9 years ago
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This is actually my first time charting footswitches, so hopefully it turned decent like I think it did.
Post #772 · Posted at 2017-07-06 01:54:01pm 7.9 years ago
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So I made some updates to my simfile.
Removed some unnecessary 16th notes in the chorus for
and fixed the patterning a bit for
+
.
Redownload if you have the simfile already (by simply downloading the .zip or the seperate .sm + .ssc files)
https://zenius-i-vanisher.com/v5.2/viewsimfile.php?simfileid=32443
Removed some unnecessary 16th notes in the chorus for



Redownload if you have the simfile already (by simply downloading the .zip or the seperate .sm + .ssc files)
https://zenius-i-vanisher.com/v5.2/viewsimfile.php?simfileid=32443
Post #773 · Posted at 2017-07-06 05:44:20pm 7.9 years ago
[Tech Savvy], indeed.

Countdown To Destination
Manuel | Super Eurobeat 172
- 1
- 4
- 6
- 8
- 10
Admittedly a wee bit nervous about this one, as I'm trying a lot of new things in this simfile's Challenge chart. It's got everything: Crossovers, Spins, Jacks, Footswitches, and even Sideswitches and Bracket jumps. All while remaining a fun chart to play. The only things not in there are bursts*, and that's because the song didn't warrant the use of those. I really hope you enjoy it!
I might make doubles charts for
-
, since I didn't get to make any for the [Simfile Buffet] like I planned.

Countdown To Destination
Manuel | Super Eurobeat 172





Admittedly a wee bit nervous about this one, as I'm trying a lot of new things in this simfile's Challenge chart. It's got everything: Crossovers, Spins, Jacks, Footswitches, and even Sideswitches and Bracket jumps. All while remaining a fun chart to play. The only things not in there are bursts*, and that's because the song didn't warrant the use of those. I really hope you enjoy it!
I might make doubles charts for


Also hooray for 7/10 weeks! Which, with this starting earlier than normal, was more than I thought I would be able to do.
Post #774 · Posted at 2017-07-06 05:52:51pm 7.9 years ago
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"[Art by LilyBreez]" |
You all ready for wacky-ass note colors?


Post #775 · Posted at 2017-07-06 10:16:16pm 7.9 years ago
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"Bemani Remix Hunter." |
Might as well get it out of the way.
https://zenius-i-vanisher.com/v5.2/viewsimfile.php?simfileid=32460
Marigold / SHORTCUTS
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10 (Ratings in development)
I made this just to be sure I did what the contest said. Has Crossovers, Jacks? and I guess Brackets(if I did it correctly.)
Also I think I made this too hard, should I tune it down?
https://zenius-i-vanisher.com/v5.2/viewsimfile.php?simfileid=32460
Marigold / SHORTCUTS





I made this just to be sure I did what the contest said. Has Crossovers, Jacks? and I guess Brackets(if I did it correctly.)
Also I think I made this too hard, should I tune it down?
Post #776 · Posted at 2017-07-08 11:22:47am 7.9 years ago
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"icon by hypnosispkmn@tumblr" |
Post #777 · Posted at 2017-07-08 04:09:15pm 7.9 years ago
Well, here we have it - the final week of the main Summer Contest for 2017 ;w;
I decided to end my run in the main contest (since I'm headed to the VIP room~) with the same song that ended Just Dance 2017...

♪゚.*: (●ノ∀`【..:*゚.Ain't My Fault / Zara Larsson.゚*:..】ノ3`●) :*.゚♪
2 |
4 |
6 |
8
(Suggested X-scale ratings:
4 |
6 |
8 |
12)
This week wasn't really a good theme for me...I usually don't think about "technical" stuff when I make simfiles so this was a challenge for me.
I might've gotten guaranteed access to the VIP Room due to coming in 1st in Week 8, but that doesn't make me any less determined to do my best and take a shot at getting points♪(*´・∀・)ノシ゚
Though I'm not too keen on this file since it was my very first attempt at making a file with "technical" patterns...(´・ω・`)
Usually my focus when I make simfiles is "do the steps fit the rhythm and flow well?", but with this week, I had another "thinking point" to add on:
゚☆+.゚☆+(★´・д・`)⊃Are the "technical" stuff not overkill and do they take away from the overall flow of the file?⊂(´・д・`○)+.☆゚+.☆
So...yeah, the
chart has as many of the patterns as I was able to properly execute in it without trying to make the file a pain to play: there are brackets on the words "Oh my God, what is this?", a L-U-U-R footswitch pattern reappearing whenever the phrase "It ain't my fault" is said, 16th-note jack sequences during the fast rapped part, two spins and plenty of crossovers (#^ω^)
I hope it's good...☆・゚:*(´ω`*人)
I decided to end my run in the main contest (since I'm headed to the VIP room~) with the same song that ended Just Dance 2017...

♪゚.*: (●ノ∀`【..:*゚.Ain't My Fault / Zara Larsson.゚*:..】ノ3`●) :*.゚♪




(Suggested X-scale ratings:




This week wasn't really a good theme for me...I usually don't think about "technical" stuff when I make simfiles so this was a challenge for me.
I might've gotten guaranteed access to the VIP Room due to coming in 1st in Week 8, but that doesn't make me any less determined to do my best and take a shot at getting points♪(*´・∀・)ノシ゚
Though I'm not too keen on this file since it was my very first attempt at making a file with "technical" patterns...(´・ω・`)
Usually my focus when I make simfiles is "do the steps fit the rhythm and flow well?", but with this week, I had another "thinking point" to add on:
゚☆+.゚☆+(★´・д・`)⊃Are the "technical" stuff not overkill and do they take away from the overall flow of the file?⊂(´・д・`○)+.☆゚+.☆
So...yeah, the

I hope it's good...☆・゚:*(´ω`*人)
Post #778 · Posted at 2017-07-08 05:27:46pm 7.9 years ago
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"now led_light for short" |

illumina / DJ TOTTO feat. *spiLa*
BPM: 93.5-187
Singles:





X-Scale:





I forgot that I had this file nearly completed in my WIP folder already. For a while, I still wasn't sure if I wanted to submit it, but there's enough crossovers and footswitches in the

Post #779 · Posted at 2017-07-08 07:32:34pm 7.9 years ago
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"Pancakes!" |
Honestly wish this week wasn't so busy for me (doing a week's worth of stuff at work in a matter of three days and two different family gatherings are brutal). There are some things that may be iffy but all the tech stuff is there at least.
Post #780 · Posted at 2017-07-08 09:16:11pm 7.9 years ago
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"RhYmEs WiTh MoRdEcAi" |
From Sound Voltex IV - Heavenly Haven
Technique fun in every chart! Heavy's got brackets, Challenge has jacks and spins, and there are footswitches and crossovers to be found all over. It says 10 for the Challenge chart, but that's really just because of the technique overload required for this week...it's a solid 15 on the later scale.
See you in the next contest! (Or later in this one if lightning strikes a flying pig holding a winning lottery ticket. Twice.)